ТЕМА 6. Predicting Earthquakes

Task 1.

Scan the text and formulate the main ideas.

Read the text again and memorize it, then retell the text close to the original.

 

      Picture this scene. It is the middle of the night. Thousands of people are sitting in open spaces far from buildings, bridges, and other structures. They have left their homes, even though the temperature is below zero. Fear shows on their faces as they crowd in small groups and try to keep warm. This actually happened in Haicheng, China, in 1975. The people in this town in northeastern Manchuria were told that an earthquake would strike within hours. And it did. Because they left their homes when they were warned, over 10,000 people saved their lives.

      Only in the last half of this century progress has been made in predicting earthquakes. Seismologists (people who study earthquakes) now have many of the instruments they need to measure changes in the earth’s crust.

      Recording shock waves. Seismometers record shock waves – strong ones, weak ones, even the ones people do not feel. In using these instruments, seismologists look for changes in the number and speed of shock waves. Such changes often signal that an earthquake is likely to happen soon.

      In warning about the Haicheng earthquake, the Chinese also used reports from farmers and other workers they had trained to read nature’s signs. The Chinese believe that animals behave differently just before a quake strikes. The Chinese workers reported strange behavior in their barn-yard animals. They also reported that water in their deep wells turned very muddy. The seismologists knew that earth vibration could muddy water. Adding these reports to what they have learned from their instruments, the Chinese were able to tell the place and the time of the earthquake.

      Problems in predicting earthquakes. Accuracy is one problem, because earthquake predicting is in an early stage. Many instruments need to be set up in areas where earthquakes are likely to occur. Many sets of data need to be recorded and studied. Much more needs to be discovered about what triggers earthquakes and what signs coming earthquakes give.

      Time is another problem. As yet, very accurate predictions for short time periods cannot be made. Seismologists can say that an earthquake is likely to strike a certain place every 50 to 100 years. They can say one is likely to strike within a year. But they often cannot tell the exact time or even the exact place. Accurate earthquake predicting on more than a hit-or-miss basis, is years away.

      Volcano prediction. Volcanic eruptions are more predictable than the earthquakes. Although predicting volcanic eruptions is generally difficult, some volcanoes give signs of a forthcoming eruption. In Hawaii, for example, some volcanoes expand and release gases before erupting. Minor earthquakes and a rise in temperatures are also early signs. Measuring these changes can help determine when an eruption is likely to occur.  

Task 2.   

 Find material about an earthquake or an active volcano, prepare a short speech. Speech should include information on where the earthquake occurred, what its Richter scale measured was, how much damage it caused, and what people felt while it was taking place.

Speech on volcanoes should include such points as the location of the volcano, the last time it erupted, the amount of damage this eruption caused, and what people feel being so close to a potentially dangerous area.

Task 3. 

Read the text to yourself and be ready for a comprehension check-up. 

                SCIENTIFIC METHOD AND METHODS OF SCIENCE (I)

It is sometimes said that there is no such thing as the so-called “scientific method”; there are only the methods used in science. Nevertheless, it seems clear that there is often a special sequence of procedures which is involved in the establishment of the working principles of science. This sequence is as follows: (1) a problem is recognized, and as much information as possible is collected; (2) a solution (i. e. a hypothesis) is proposed and the consequences arising out of this solution are deduced; (3) these deductions are tested by experiment, and as a result the^ hypothesis is accepted, modified or discarded.

2) Check up for comprehension.

1. Find two sentences which express two different viewpoints on the existence of “scientific method”. 2. What words show that the first sentence is an opinion? 3. What word shows that these viewpoints are in opposition? 4. Find the words equivalent to “scientific method”. 5. What procedure does the scientist follow in his research?

 

                SCIENTIFIC METHOD AND METHODS OF SCIENCE (II)

Recently much attention has been given to the study of this phenomenon. In this paper new experimental observations are presented and discussed. The data have been obtained assuming a new model of the mechanism involved, which was suggested in an earlier study by the author, the measurements have been carried out with a conventional apparatus slightly modified by the author. All possible sources of error are taken into account and consideration is given to the advantages and shortcomings of the present approach. The results are analysed and the analysis is followed by a comparison of the data obtained with those available in literature. It is hoped that the disagreement may be accounted for by an improved experimental technique of the present investigation.

2) Check up for comprehension.

1. Is it an abstract, a summary or a conclusion? 2. What was the author’s theoretical contribution? 3. Did anybody else study the phenomenon? (Find two sentences to support your answer). 4. Do the author’s results agree with those reported in literature? 5. How does he account for that? 6. How does the author increase the accuracy of his results?